Of the many awesome experiences I had during my two years at the RTIP (1999-2001), the NTRA National Handicapping Championship (NHC) ranks up at the top. The NTRA had asked four of us students to help out with registration and other various tasks for the two-day contest and all of us were very excited to make the trip to Las Vegas.
This year's DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship will be held at
Treasure Island Casino in Las Vegas Jan 24-26. The three-day tournament
will offer $1.5 million in prizes with $750,000 to the first prize
winner. This is quite a jump from the $200,000 total prize money in
1999 and the NHC has become a life-changing event for those that have won the title of top handicapper.
I love contests and I was able to absorb as much as I could at what has turned out to be the largest handicapping contest in this country. From meeting top handicappers to helping out with tallying up the rankings, it really didn't feel like work as it was so much fun! Fortunately, we were asked to come back a few more times and we had as much fun as we did in the first year.
One of the ideas being discussed during this time was a television series that would feature horseplayers. It would show how a horseplayer arrives to their play for a race and follow along as the race runs. That idea has finally become reality as the show "Horseplayers" will make its debut on the Esquire Network on Tuesday, Jan 21 at 10 PM. Each episode will follow a group of handicappers around the country while they compete for the title of America's top handicapper. One of the handicappers on the series is Peter Rotundo who was one of the organizers we had worked with at the NHC.
Like the fantastic movie "Let It Ride", I hope this series will show the horseplayer's point of view and what we all go through during a day of racing: The ups and downs, the great wins and the bad beats along with the characters you meet at the track or simulcast facility. I also hope that racing executives watch as well to give them an idea of what a horseplayer goes through and why we feel our ideas will help out the sport.
The biggest mistake I made while working the NHC in 2003 was not following the "buzz" about a horse a lot of handicappers were talking about. Keep in mind many of the top handicappers in the country were in the building and many talked about making a Kentucky Derby future book wager on this particular horse. He had run that weekend and I went back and looked at him in the past performances. I can remember saying to myself: "Yeah right, a NY-bred gelding is going the win the Kentucky Derby!" Well, he was 75/1 at the time and Funny Cide would go on to win the 2003 Kentucky Derby. Here's hoping that racing executives do not make my mistake and listen when horseplayers speak.
A few days ago, one of the birthday gifts I bought for my Mom was a lottery scratcher ticket. On this particular ticket, it said there were over 13 prizes of $5 million and that you have 28 chances to win any prize on a single ticket. This particular ticket cost $20 which is the highest one you can purchase in California. While Mom did not become an instant millionaire, it got me thinking maybe there is a way to make some horse racing wagers more interesting using this higher cost/higher payout idea.
In recent years, many exotic wagers in horse racing have had their minimums dropped to $1 and even a few dropped all the way down to $.10. This gives the horseplayer a higher chance to collect a ticket with multiple combinations at a lower cost. The only one that I can think of that hasn't changed is the straight Pick 6 (not the Pick 6 where a large percentage of the pool is only paid out if there is only one ticket selecting all six winners). In Southern California, the Pick 6 has become a mainstay and has attracted carryover pools into the millions which can lead to a six-figure payoff. This is a minimum $2 wager which helps keep the chances for a carryover much higher as the chances of winning are low and tickets can get expensive fairly quickly.
What if there was an exotics wager that required a minimum $5 or even $10 bet? I think for this to work it would have to be something like a Double or maybe even a Pick 3, but it would have to be a separate pool than the consecutive/rolling Double or Pick 3 that is offered (i.e. races 1-2, races 4-6 etc.). The current tote machines can handle such a wager as there is the Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double wager available which is two races on two different days.
This type of wager would likely have to be offered in the middle of a card as money starts to flow better whether people are churning money from their winnings or people still trying to cash a ticket. I can see a $5 Pick 3 offered for races 3, 5 and 7 while a $10 Double might be for races 4 and 7. While I would not expect to see a huge increase in pool size, I could see it becoming more popular with time as people become excited and attracted to the bigger payouts. Also, with a higher minimum it would increase the chances for a carryover especially in a Pick 3 pool.
While I do enjoy the lower minimums in exotics wagering, I feel there should be a wager or two that offers a chance for a higher payoff. I'm not a Pick 6 player as I feel the chances of me winning are slim especially with a slim bankroll. However, I may dive into a high-minimum Double or Pick 3 as there would not be as many combinations covered which would lead to a higher payout. I think a horseplayer with any size bankroll would find this attractive as we are all looking for that big score.
Maybe next year Mom!
Like most industries, a new year brings about changes and horse racing is no different. Here are a few changes we will see in 2014:
Racing in Southern California - This is probably the biggest one with the closing of Hollywood Park. There will now be more racing at Santa Anita and Del Mar while Los Alamitos will also run thoroughbreds along with their usual Quarter Horses. The following is the 2014 schedule:
Santa Anita: Dec. 26, 2013 - June 29, 2014
Los Alamitos: July 3 - July 13
Del Mar: July 16 - Sept. 3
Fairplex: Sept. 4 - Sept. 23
Santa Anita: Sept. 25 - Nov. 2
Del Mar: Nov. 5 - Dec. 3
Los Alamitos: Dec. 4 - Dec. 21
Santa Anita: Dec. 26, 2014 - Dec 31, 2014
Aqueduct racing Thursday - Monday - From January thru March of the Aqueduct meet, they will change from Wednesday - Sunday to a Thursday - Monday schedule. This will change in the month of February when they will race four days a week with a Friday - Monday schedule. In April, they will return to a Wednesday - Sunday schedule. Santa Anita tried the Thursday - Monday schedule a few years back and it was not successful. Maybe this will as Aqueduct will likely be the "headliner" on Mondays for the east coast simulcast player.
Preakness Stakes purse now $1.5 million - It appears that Maryland racing is on the improve and a 50% increase in The Preakness Stakes purse seems to prove that theory. This is the first purse raise since 1998 and it will be interesting to see if The Belmont Stakes purse is raised soon. It is nice to see a healthy circuit and maybe Maryland can make a profit on a day outside of The Preakness someday soon.
Rolling Doubles eliminated at Santa Anita - There will now only be three Doubles offered on the card at Santa Anita with a lowered 18% takeout. A Double wager can now only be made from races 1-2, 4-5 and the last two races on the card. Click here to view my blog about this change.
Omni wager debuts at NYRA tracks - This wager will be offered for every race with a 15% takeout. It requires a better to select two of the first three-place finishers. In order to win, your two horses can finish 1-2, 1-3 or 2-3. This has been tried at Hollywood Park and Keeneland in the past and it has since been cancelled. They probably should think about eliminating the Grand Slam wager as it only handled $61,097 on Belmont Stakes day and only $18,362 this past Dec. 14.
Graded Stakes - There are always good and bad discussions about this as with all other human judgements. I feel there are way too many Grade 1 races and it is hurting the sport (click here for my take on Graded Stakes). The La Troienne at Churchill Downs is now a Grade 1 while The Prioress at Saratoga and The Princess Rooney at Calder were downgraded to Grade 2. Four races were upgraded to a Grade 2 while seven races were downgraded to a Grade 3. Two races, The Sapling at Monmouth Park and The Ohio Derby at Thistledown, lost their Graded Stakes status.
A change that has been discussed, but not implemented yet is a possible increase in admission at Belmont Park and Saratoga. The NYRA has explained that this is needed to make a profit without help from the slot machine fund. Outside of Belmont Stakes day, there is rarely a crowd of over 10,000 at Belmont Park so this wouldn't seem to help and it may keep angry customers away. At Saratoga, why would you want to keep people away from such a successful and grand meet by raising admission prices? Let's hope they see the light and do not increase admission prices.
With change comes hope and these changes (whether you like them or not) will likely make their impact. Whether it is positive or negative that remains to be seen, but let's hope for more positive changes that will help improve our industry for the years ahead.
It is no secret that when certain trainers on various circuits claim a horse (or receive a horse from another trainer by the owner) that many of the horses improve dramatically in their next start. Are these trainers that talented? Do they know something that most all the other trainers don't know that can make a horse improve more than a few lengths?
Here are a few examples of recent runners on the NYRA circuit who were claimed or switched barns and they improved a lot per their Today's Racing Digest Final Time Ratings in their next starts:
Claimed from Wesley Ward by David Jacobson July 28, Barrister Jim returned to win Nov 1 and improved his Final Time Rating (second last column on the right) from a 108 to a 135.
Moved into the Jason Servis barn after his 7th June 22, Dr. Wesley won his next two starts and earned a 137 and 156 Final Time Rating.
Claimed from Gary Contessa by Rudy Rodriguez Sept 19, Inmyfathersimage won by over eight lengths earning a 125 Final Time Rating Nov 7.
Claimed from Eddie Kenneally by David Jacobson off his win Oct 4, Pass The Tap went from a 105 Final Time Rating to a 129 Final Time Rating Nov 8.
Moved from the Bob Baffert stable to the David Jacobson stable after his 4th vs. $20,000 Maiden-Claimers Oct 5, Spirited Touch easily beat $50,000 Maiden-Claimers Nov 7 earning a 128 Final Time Rating.
As those of us know that go to the races or the OTB, when these runners win and/or improve their numbers dramatically, you will hear from other horseplayers "that trainer knows what drugs to use" or "they have the juice". Now imagine yourself as a new fan and you hear this. You might think to yourself: "Is this what is really happening and that some trainers have better drugs?"
Most horseplayers will assume that this is the case. They can't explain what happens to turn around a horse like this as we do not know what a trainer does to make this happen. The trainer doesn't come out and say what they did and who could blame them. They do not want to give out their methods.
Unfortunately, this assumption of drug use is difficult to hide as legal medications such as Lasix and Bute are allowed on race day in this country and Canada. Can these medications hide other illegal substances? Are current drug tests not finding new substances?
Until there are new methods to detect if there is any illegal drug use going on, this assumption by many horseplayers will not change. A recent movement to rid any race day medication has deteriorated. There are no 24/7 security cameras in the barns on the backstretch to catch any illegal activity. Because of this, expect to see more of these big turnarounds to continue to happen without any reasonable explanation.
Honestly, I did not think I would visit Hollywood Park again after Zenyatta's last California appearance back in 2010. I never really had any motivation to go back there after that, but an opportunity came up on Sunday, Dec 1 and I took advantage.
I was visiting family and friends in Los Angeles for the weekend and I noticed earlier in the week that Rookie Sensation was entered in the Hollywood Derby. A good friend of mine has been on this horse all year including the Twilight Derby on Breeders' Cup Friday and he suggested we should go see him run in person. I was all for it as I rarely turn down a visit to a race track.
It was certainly a nice day weather-wise, but there still was not a lot of people at the track. This day being the Hollywood Park Turf Festival and the vibe felt like it was a late December Thursday.
We arrived about 30 minutes before the Hollywood Derby and had no problem grabbing a good spot by the paddock.
Surprisingly, Rookie Sensation was 2/1 the first time I looked at the tote and while I would place some money on him to win, I did play some Exacta's with him in the second slot with a few horses on top.
He looked great in the paddock as he was snorting and feeling full of himself (I'm talking about Rookie Sensation here though the same could be said about my friend on the right!). He is also a pretty big horse and he looked to be sitting on a big effort.
My favorite jockey for a long time has been Corey Nakatani. He is especially at his best when riding on the turf and he was aboard the foreign import Seek Again who had a recent haircut as he still had some of his winter coat.
We took a spot just before the finish line on the grandstand apron and Rookie Sensation would drift up to 3/1 as the second choice when the odds finalized. As the field passed us to the first time, we could not believe our eyes as Rookie Sensation was on the lead! Both my friend and I looked at each other with bewilderment as this colt has been a deep closer in all of his turf routes.
As the field turned for home, Rookie Sensation was still going strong and it looked like he had a chance. However, there was a horse rallying along the rail and it was Seek Again. He proved best in deep stretch while Rookie Sensation tired a bit and finished 5th. What a disappointment especially for my friend as he wanted to see that big rally that Rookie Sensation has shown in the past.
My final wager at Hollywood Park turned out to be a winner. I bet $9 in the race and got back $12.40 for a net win of $3.40. We left a few minutes after that race after we each took a few last pictures.
While it is sad that another race track will be torn down, it really did feel like Hollywood Park was on its last legs. It is too bad that the race track still couldn't be remodeled to fit the current crowds while using the rest of the space for the future development of the land. I especially feel bad for those that were employed there as they will now have to look for another job/career.
2014 will certainly be a big change for California racing with the closing of Hollywood Park. It could be a big opportunity for Los Alamitos to be a major player and it will be interesting to see what the attendance will be like at the Del Mar Autumn meet in November. Will the Santa Anita turf course hold up for the upcoming six month meet? Can Golden Gate turn their business around after years of downsizing cards and races per day? It's all up in the air, but either way we will lose Hollywood Park forever.
The Daily Double, as it was called, was one of the first if not the
first exotic wager offered at race tracks and it was offered on the
first race of the day. To win a Daily Double, you had to select the
winners of the first and second race. As exotic wagering began to
expand so did the Double wager. As I remember a Double would also be
offered as the Late Double for the final two races of a card probably
around the early 1990's. Currently, many race tracks offer rolling
Doubles with a $1 minimum, but it has always been a $2 minimum in
California as far as I know.
The Double is my favorite exotics wager. I
can remember I hit 11 straight Doubles at Del Mar one season when it was
the Early and Late Double. It's the "keep it simple" approach which
makes it attractive for me and I usually have success at the track when I
stay away from many of the other exotic wagers available.
It was announced (among other things) at the latest California Horse Racing Board meeting that there will no longer be rolling Double wagers at the upcoming Santa Anita meet. Instead, there will be three Doubles offered per day with a takeout of 18% which is down from the current 22.68% rate. The Double will be offered in race 1, race 4 and for the second to last race on the card.
From a race track point of view, I can see why they think this will
work. There will be larger pools with only three Doubles offered a day
and that in theory will lead to bigger payoffs. However, with the
already large pools wagered at Santa Anita I do not think it will make
that much of a difference.
After reading a few forums about this news of only three Doubles a day, it appears that many horseplayers are upset at Santa Anita. Taking away something rarely makes anyone happy and I believe horseplayers have a right to be upset. Sure, the takeout is lowered, but why can't it be lowered for rolling Doubles? It was bad enough that takeout rates in California were risen a few years ago and now they want to take away at least four Doubles per race day?
With a near six month meet upcoming for Santa Anita, they should be trying to attract horseplayers and not give them a reason to stay away. They should allow the Double takeout at 18% and bring back the rolling Double. This may help to build the pools and give more back to horseplayers. Isn't more business good business? Let's hope Santa Anita will change its mind.
(originally written May 13, 2013. I've added updates)
Ever since Bay Meadows Land Co. bought Hollywood Park back in 2005,
we knew that the track would be torn down someday. With this week’s
announcement, the last day of racing at Hollywood Park will be Dec 22,
2013. This is the 75th and last year at the track since opening its
doors in 1938. The same fate happened to Bay Meadows race track in 2008
where the rubble laid there for a few years (and still may be).
A few things delayed the closure of Hollywood Park as there was a
chance it would remain open if slots were to become available on-track,
but that was shut down by the voters of California. The real estate
market also plunged with the recession that has happened the last few
years, but has now started to pick up some steam. The land will
eventually be developed into condos, a retail district, a hotel and a
park among other things while the casino will still remain.
California racing in 2014 should see quite a change. There is a need
for stalls for all the horses who usually stay at Hollywood Park year
round. There likely will be more racing dates at Santa Anita and Del
Mar. Also in the talks has been opening Fairplex Park or Los Alamitos.
Will those that worked at Hollywood Park now shift to the other tracks
or will they just lose their jobs?
Stalls should be the first priority as all these horses now will need
a place to live. Fairplex may have some room, but most likely we will
see training tracks such as San Luis Rey Downs to help fill the need.
Along with the horses, trainers and their help would need a
place to work and live as well.
(Updated for 2014: Santa Anita will race from Dec 26 thru July 6. Los Alamitos will race from July 10 thru July 20. Del Mar takes their usual spot from July 16 thru Sept 3. Fairplex will race from Sept 4 thru Sept 23. Racing goes back to Santa Anita from Sept 25 thru Nov 2. Del Mar will race from Nov 5 thru Dec 7. Finally, Los Alamitos will race from Dec 11 thru Dec 21.)
It is no secret that California racing has declined in recent years.
Smaller fields, higher takeout and higher living costs have all had an
effect on attendance and wagering. Trainer John Shirreffs took his
string of horses to Belmont Park as he said he could not see a better
future in the short term for California. It would not be a surprise to
see a few others follow.
Now that a change has to be made for the survival of racing, maybe
now the leaders of horse racing in California can help turn things
around. Sometimes it takes something drastic to happen to make
something drastic happen and change is certainly needed. Unfortunately,
we will lose a track filled with lots of history.
For this blogger, I can remember attending the 1997 Breeders’ Cup at
Hollywood Park, but nothing prior to that. I do remember going to
closing day on a December Monday in 2001 and it was a first look at
greatness. Azeri made her second career start in an Allowance race and I was
in awe when she raced through the stretch. I really thought she was
going to be a top-class horse and she proved me right.
Azeri in the Hollywood Park paddock Dec 17, 2001.
My last visit was in 2010 for Zenyatta’s final race before heading to
Kentucky for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There were 25,000 fans that
day and she made it 19-for-19 as she thrilled the crowd once again.
Zenyatta at Hollywood Park in 2010 approaching the gate.
If you would like, share some of your Hollywood Park memories below.
For now, we will have a few more months of racing to enjoy and we’ll
hold our breath hoping for a better future for California racing.
