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Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Handicapping the 2-year-old's

(This blog is from Today's Racing Digest website that was written by myself.  Click here for the original link.)


Summer time is upon us and that means we’ll see more and more races for 2-year-old’s. Handicapping a race filled with first time starters can be a headache, but after looking at some recent winners there may be a way to lessen the pain.


In a study of straight 2-year-old Maiden races throughout the country where the winner was a first-time starter, eight of the nine winners had at least two of three qualifying points listed below:
 

1. Trainer stats with first-time starters were at least 12% win percentage.

2. Sire stats with first-time starters were at least 13% win percentage.

3. Each horse in their last six published workouts had at least two gate works and/or a fast work.



We’ll highlight each horse using Today’s Racing Digest Data Lines along with the date and payout.


Bahnah 1
Bahnah: Churchill Downs June 6 Race 5 $5.80.  Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
Side Letter 1
Side Letter: Golden Gate June 7 Race 4 $3.60. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
Look Quickly
Look Quickly: Golden Gate June 7 Race 6 $28.80. Did not have any qualifiers.
Sandbar 1
Sandbar: Churchill Downs June 8 Race 8 $9.40. Qualified with 1 and 3.
Ride The World 1
Ride The World: Woodbine June 8 Race 4 $6.80. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
Red Outlaw 1
Red Outlaw: Betfair Hollywood Park June 9 Race 9 $5.20. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
South Sound 1
South Sound: Betfair Hollywood Park June 14 Race 2 $5.80. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
Specialnightaction 1
Specialnightaction: Calder June 15 Race 8 $9.00. Qualified with 1, 2 and 3.
See My Tail Lites 1
See My Tail Lites: Emerald Downs June 16 Race 3 $6.40. Qualified with 1 and 3.

Now there are no groundbreaking prices here as all eight qualifiers paid $9.40 or less.  However, the study shows what to look for when handicapping 2-year-old first-time starters in straight Maiden races.  Maybe we can all find more winners this way and can leave the aspirin at home!

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