A Day At The OTB

Belmont Stakes day is one of my favorite to wager on. I’ve had some big hits and have had a few bucks on winners Sarava (70/1), D’Tara (38/1) and the best being the 1999 renewal with Lemon Drop Kid (29/1) keying a $2 Trifecta payoff of $5,343. The day also includes four more Graded events and large wagering pools. My budget is tight these days and I only had a bankroll of $40.  We’ll take a look at what I wagered with the results of wins and losses.

5th race: I arrived at the OTB for the 4th race, but did not play.  My top selection was Howie’s Tiz (2/1).  Two other contenders I liked were Accelerare (6/1) and Rap D’oro (22/1).  I’m a value bettor and I thought Acclerare was playable odds.  I played a Double with Accelerare with two horses in the 6th and another Double Acclerare and Rap D’oro with one horse in the 6th.  Then, I singled Howie’s Tiz in a Pick 3 using two in the 6th and one in the 7th.  Over the years, I’ve learned to never disregard your top choice no matter what the odds are.  Moreno won the race with Accelerare in 2nd.  Howie’s Tiz was 7th with Rap D’oro 9th.  Results: -$6

6th race: It really looked like favored Power Broker (6/5) would be able to control the pace.  New Line (8/1) looked like he would be able to be within striking range while Micromanage (11/1) came back a winner and he could be a late threat.  I played an Exacta keying Power Broker with New Line and Micromanage while playing New Line and Micromanage to win as well  Power Broker led all the way with Micromanage rallying for the second spot for a $24.40 payoff.  Result: +$18.80

7th race: Reload was scratched and I thought the A-entry of Justin Phillip and Fast Bullet looked tough to beat.  They were 4/5 at post time and I decided not to play.  Fast Bullet led all the way with Justin Phillip chasing in 2nd for a 1-2 finish.  Result: no play

8th race: I thought this race came down to Stephanie’s Kitten (3/1) and Centre Court (5/2).  I decided to use these two in a Pick 4 with two in the 9th, a single in the 10th and five deep in the 11th.  When I made this bet, Stephanie’s Kitten was 2/1 and I decided not to play her to win.  I was surprised she drifted up to 3/1 at post time and she proved best late.  This was a mistake as I should have had some win money on her at those odds.  Pick 4 ticket is alive.  Result: $10 Pick 4 ticket alive

9th race: This is where I made a big mistake.  I did not have the confidence to single Stephanie’s Kitten in the 8th and only used two in this wide-open race.  I used Declan’s Warrior (9/2) and Clearly Now (9/2).  The race had a lot of early speed and it looked like it would set up well for a closer.  My two selections rallied, but finished 2-3 as they were outfinished by Forty Tales.  No doubt Forty Tales was a contender and he was a closer.  Result: -$10 (Pick 4 ticket)

10th race: Point Of Entry was a total standout on paper.  He was the class of the race, he could handle a yielding course and he was the heavy favorite at 1/2.  Usually if there is an upset, it can be by a frontrunner so I placed $2 win on Plainview (23/1).  I then played a $10 Double from Point Of Entry to Freedom Child.  Also, I played a $2 Double Point Of Entry with longshots Palace Malice and Midnight Taboo.  The Double payoffs to Orb and Revolutionary were too low for me to play. Point Of Entry grinded out the win with Plainview fading to 6th.  Result $14 in Doubles alive

11th race: Since I did not have my other contenders Orb or Revolutionary in my Doubles, I used them in an Exacta on top with my three Double horses, Freedom Child, Midnight Taboo and Palace Malice.  That way, if one of my Double horses finishes 2nd I have a chance to catch the Exacta.  I also played an Exacta using Freedom Child and Palace Malice with Midnight Taboo hoping for a big payoff.  Freedom Child popped and stopped.  Midnight Taboo finished 12th and Palace Malice won.  When I bet the Doubles, the payoff to Palace Malice was $54.  It only paid $36.20 and the parlay would have paid $45.80.  That’s the chance you take in Double wagering.  Results: +$14.20
Total winnings $17.00

It was a winning day, but certainly nothing to brag about.  In my opinion, the betting part has always been harder than the handicapping.  That Pick 4 was very hittable and I did spread in the right races.  I just did not spread far enough to catch the $447 payoff.

The Double has probably been my favorite wager as value can be found and you can see the estimated payoffs to find value.  Most of the time the payoff is bigger than the parlay, but there was some heavy action to Palace Malice for it to move from $54 to $36 with 10 minutes to post.  Obviously, I was not the only one who saw the value on the board.

Get ready for even more six-horse fields!

Unless something pokes it in the eyes the horse racing industry will not blink.  The same problem that has plagued the industry over the last few decades is still lingering and it seems nothing is being done to help it.  Thoroughbreds continue to make less and less starts in their careers and with the sharp recent decline in the foal crop, it is going to be very difficult to have as many races as there are today.

Recently, we have seen race tracks card 12 and sometimes 14 races a day.  I would be very surprised to see that again over the next two years as the foal crop from 2012 has dropped 36% since 2007 with a total of 21,725.  

Race days for 2014 have mostly been set across the country and there has not been a large cut back in racing days.  Will there be less races carded per day or will days be cut on a day-to-day basis?

This past winter we witnessed Aqueduct go from five days to four days a week for six straight weeks.  Many tracks have already moved to a four day a week schedule and with this news about the sharp decline in the foal crop, it would not be surprising to see both Aqueduct and Belmont move to four days and Saratoga moving from six to five.

A typical race week in Southern California consists of eight races on the two weekdays and nine races on the two weekend days for a total of 34 races.  What may need to happen to keep race days up is to card six races on weekdays and eight on weekend days which will cut six races a week which equals about 17% less.  More than likely, though, is that the amount of races will remain the same with an average of 4-6 horses per race.

In Northern California, the situation is already on the ropes as they have cut to seven races on one weekday a week and it is not like they are exactly bragging about their field sizes.  

As one that works in the industry, I do not want to see a cut back in race dates as I will lose days of work.  I'm sure there are plenty of other people who feel the same way yet it seems as if the industry has no plans to attack this upcoming situation.  I'm always optimistic that things will work out and that life goes on, but it is difficult to have the same attitude when it comes to the horse racing industry as it continues to show that it lives for today and not for the future.

Super Saturday or Alarming Saturday?

With five Grade 1's races and a Grade 2 at Belmont Park along with five Grade 1's at Santa Anita, this past Saturday, Sept 28 was deemed Super Saturday.  There were great performances on the track along with some surprising results in what was a major prep for the Breeders' Cup five weeks away.

Belmont started the day off with the 3-year-old Princess Of Sylmar beating the mare Royal Delta in the Beldame.  'Sylmar, like most top class female runners, is very consistent and she may be even better as a 4-year-old.  Royal Delta will probably still be a top contender in the BC Distaff as she did not run badly; she just got plain outrun. 

Then we watched three consecutive races won in gate-to-wire fashion by Graydar in the Kelso, Private Zone in the Vosburgh and Laughing in the Flower Bowl.  Graydar and Laughing both set soft fractions and we would be surprised if they were allowed this kind of lead on Breeders' Cup Day.  Private Zone was game in his previous win at Del Mar after losing the lead in the stretch entering this race and he did the same thing in the Vosburgh.  This guy seems to be in top form and he has learned how to win after a string of close finishes.

Little Mike hadn't won since last year's BC Turf, but Mike Smith rode him the way Ramon Dominguez did in that race by sitting off the pace, taking the lead entering the stretch and holding on for a narrow win.  This horse has baffled us and other handicappers as you never know what Little Mike you will see on race day.  He can lead all the way in brilliant fashion or throw out the anchor or win like he did in this year's Joe Hirsch.  

Ron The Greek is another who can pop up with a big race now and then and he did just that in the Jockey Club Gold Cup winning by over six lengths at 21/1.  This was a quality field and he has won at 10 furlongs at Santa Anita in the past.  Can he string two alike?

Over at Santa Anita, Secret Compass was able to catch She's A Tiger in the final strides of the Chandelier.  'Tiger was on a fast pace and may have moved a touch too early when she opened up entering the far turn.  She may be able to turn the tables next time out.  

In the Rodeo Drive, Vionnet tried to pull off a "Laughing" as she set the pace, but she was unable to hold off Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix.  'Flirtatious proved her visually impressive win at Del Mar last time out was not a fluke as she held off 'Mix by a head.  This was a good rebound by 'Mix who did not fire her best shot last time out at Arlington.

In a race that was full of Maidens, Bond Holder grabbed his first win in the Frontrunner by rallying from near the back of the pack.  He won by over two lengths, but we have to question the competition of this "Grade 1" affair.

When Beholder was allowed to set the pace entering the first turn, I said to myself "This race is over".  She proved me right as she led all the way in the Zenyatta.  This was not a strong field either, but this filly is always tough to run down when able to establish a Lone "F" trip.

The fans were correct in the Awesome Again as Mucho Macho Man ran away from the field as the 8/5 favorite.  He ran big in last year's BC Classic and it seems this 5-year-old loves this main track.  


Most alarming from this day is the on-track attendance at both tracks.  Both are in the area of two of the biggest cities in this country, but Belmont drew only 10,549 while Santa Anita drew 12,216.  

Outside of Belmont Stakes Day, a crowd of 10,000 is rarely reached at Belmont Park so this was really no surprise.  Still, you have to wonder what racing officials think and maybe new NYRA President Christopher Kay can find a way to bring people back on track.

Santa Anita drew 5,349 less than last year on this day and that is with $15 million of new renovations over the summer.  It seems they should have spent some of that money on marketing.  

Until race tracks figure out a way to bring more people on track, attendance will continue to suffer.  Admission and parking charges, high takeout rates, low-quality customer service and food have been complaints for as far as I can remember.  This Super Saturday should be renamed Alarming Saturday after this year's low attendance and it should serve as a warning of things to come if no major changes are made in the future.

Changing the Thoroughbred Birthday from January 1 to July 1

There has been plenty of debate on whether the Triple Crown races (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes) should be changed from 3-year-old’s only to 4-year-old’s only.  Many argue that it will ruin the tradition of the series and those that win a Triple Crown as a 4-year-old would not be comparable to those that have won as a 3-year-old.  The opponents suggest that today’s thoroughbred is not durable enough to win all three races and that many that go thru the series often do not race again or can continue to compete at a top level.

Both ideas seem to be in neutral so why don’t we meet it in the middle.  Let’s change the universal birthday for a thoroughbred from Jan 1 to July 1.  This will allow a 3-year-old to be a mature sophomore instead of a less mature one.  Right now, if a runner in the Kentucky Derby was born in mid-May or later, they are actually not a full three years old.  With this new birth date, they all will be a full three years of age (of course many will be in real life a 4-year-old).  Either way, the rules are broken so let’s make it for a more mature horse for the sake of this argument.

Horse racing peaks in interest around the Triple Crown so why not move the Breeders’ Cup Championships to one of the last two weekends in June to help keep the sport in the spotlight.  Currently, the Breeders’ Cup tries to compete with the NFL, NCAA College Football, NHL and NBA in late October/early November while a move to late June would only have one other major sport to compete with (MLB).  Summer hours would also keep it daylight longer and that can allow the Breeders’ Cup to be run near prime time.

As for the Breeders’ Cup, we can see a change to help keep our star runners in training by making all races for 4-year-old’s and older while switching the Juvenile races (2-year-old’s) to the Breeders’ Cup Derby and Oaks (dirt and turf) which would be for 3-year-old’s only.   Once these sophomores turn four years old on July 1, they can compete in some big events such as the Haskell Invitational and the Travers Stakes.  Note that neither one of these are called Derby’s so maybe they can restrict those races for 4-year-old’s only.

What opens in July?  Two of the most popular meets: Saratoga and Del Mar.  This can be the start of the 2-year-old season instead of April and in some cases March.  By changing the birthday, this will give the young thoroughbreds time to mature and more time to gain experience as they run towards the Triple Crown.  Also, this will allow a bigger window should an injury occur.  Nowadays when there is an injury, it is basically the end of a horse’s chance to race in the Triple Crown as there is little time to recover.   Some notable names we have lost this year due to injury are Violence, Ive Struck A Nerve, Hear The Ghost and Shanghai Bobby.

For this industry to flourish, changes need to be made.  We’ve seen public interest decline over the past 25 years and there is not a quick fix to turn it around.  There would be more than a few challenges to make this birthday move happen as races would have to be rewritten, horse/breeding information for all data would have to be changed, there could possibly be a two-time Kentucky Derby winner, etc.   For an industry that seems to only be stepping on its own feet, this could be a step in the right direction.

What do you think?

Keep your heads up horse racing fans

There is a lot of negativity in the horse racing industry these days and there is plenty of reason for it. From high takeout rates to short fields to closing of race tracks, there is plenty of blame to go around. While it is human nature to complain more than to compliment, we’ll take a look at five positive things that the industry can be happy about.

1. Hall Of Famer’s still got it:  Every sport has its young stars, but it also has its crafty veterans that can still teach the youngsters a lesson or two.  Trainer Shug McGaughey won his first Kentucky Derby this year with Orb while trainer D. Wayne Lukas saddled Oxbow to win the Preakness with jockey Gary Stevens aboard.  All three human connections are in the Hall Of Fame and it surely makes fans of the “old school” proud.  It also makes for a great story which the industry seems to thrive on.

2. International racing:  The internet and social media has helped make the world smaller as we can see and find out what is going on all over the world in a few seconds.  Over the last few years, we got to see a pair of superstar horses from overseas: Frankel from Europe and Black Caviar from Australia.  Frankel went undefeated in 15 starts and won 10 Group 1 events.  Black Caviar went undefeated in 25 starts and won 15 Group 1 events.  Horses like these help create new horse racing fans as Zenyatta did here in the U.S. and we were able to follow along with each victory whether it was on HRTV or TVG, via TV simulcast at race tracks or OTB’s, or on the internet.

3. Account wagering: How awesome it is that we can now make a wager from home or from anywhere with a phone?  While there is no comparison to watching a race live in person, we all can’t be at the track every day.  For a long time, we California residents could not wager on all tracks as there was a limit of simulcast races allowed for each day.  Nowadays, we can wager on tracks across the country with account wagering either online or by phone.  This convenience is much appreciated and we have seen an increase in account wagering year by year.

4. Star horses still in training: For a while there, it seemed like when a horse won a Graded Stakes race or two they were retired shortly for breeding purposes.  It is difficult to build a following when a horse is only around for a year or even less.  In recent years we have seen that trend slowly reversing.  This year, we’ve seen the return of Horse of the Year Wise Dan win a pair of Grade 1 Stakes already (of course he is a gelding).  2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom won this year’s Dubai World Cup.  Champion mare Royal Delta was unplaced in the Dubai World Cup, but is scheduled to return to racing in this country later this month.  We appreciate the connections of these and other runners who are still around and let’s hope this trend will continue in the future.

5. The Mid-Atlantic Uniform Medication Program: There is not much nationwide solidarity in the industry and this new program gives us some hope.  Eight states have agreed to enforce the same medication regulation and testing regarding thresholds and withdrawal guidelines beginning in 2014.  Many race tracks in that region are in close proximity of each other and this will make it easier for horsemen to understand the regulations instead of trying to figure them out by each state.  Recently, it was announced that California will join the program next year as well.  Maybe this is a step towards national regulation and hopefully that will lead to other nationwide programs in the future.

All of us became a fan of horse racing for one reason or another.  We did not become fans because of the negative reasons.  Whether it was the beauty of the sport and/or the gambling/handicapping aspect, we want others to understand why we like horse racing.  These are just five and we would like to hear from you why we should all keep our heads up by commenting below!

Three Handicapping Lessons to be Learned

(This is a blog I wrote on the Today's Racing Digest blog from June 11, 2013)

All of us have had our share of bad beats. It could be a bad ride, a bad bet or just plain bad luck. The one that comes to mind for me is with Arcangues in the 1993 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Yeah, the one that was 133/1 with Jerry Bailey that won!  As a budding young handicapper, I would always try to beat the favorite and I could not figure out why they brought Arcangues all the way over from Europe to run in this race.  His form was not good, but I figured they know more than I do.

I can remember I played an Exacta box using Arcangues, Best Pal and Devil His Due with the latter two a pair of favorite horses of mine at the time.  By my own stubbornness I did not use the favored three-horse entry of Bertrando, Marquetry and Missionary Ridge.  Looking back, how stupid was I not only to not use a three-horse entry, but those three horses were pretty damn good.

As it turns out, Arcangues won the race with Bertrando running 2nd.  The Exacta paid just over $1,000 and I did not have it.  I searched frantically thru my tickets hoping I had it by accident and I did have a ticket to collect:  $2 show on Arcangues.  How could I not have this horse to win and have the Exacta!  Instead of a big win, I collected my $18.20 and walked to the car with my head down questioning my own sanity.

Handicapping lesson #1: Always play the horse you like to win.
 
Even if the win is small, it is a win and if anything it helps mentally to collect a winning ticket.  For me personally, I do not play odds-on horses to win. 

There are different ways to play Exactas.  You can bet them straight, you can box, you can key or you can wheel.  Many people often advise to always box your Exactas, but I’m not a fan of that if it is more than two horses in a box.  Even then, if Quinella wagering is available, I advise to play the Exacta the way you think it will come in straight and then play the Quinella using those two horses.  That way, if it comes in the way you think it will, you collect on both tickets.  If Quinella wagering is not available, play a two-horse box, but three or more I would use another method.

Lately, the way I play a lot of races is to play the horse I like to win and then using a few contenders on top in the Exacta with my horse in the second slot.  Handicapper Steve Fierro taught me this as he said you will probably catch more higher-paying Exactas this way instead of playing the horse to win and backing it up to place.  It has been sound advice as I have caught some nice Exacta payoffs since using this method.

Of course, I was dumb enough in my early days of handicapping not to back my horse up either in the Exacta or to win.  The 1996 Pacific Classic was the race where I learned my lesson the hard way.  I played a straight $20 Exacta with Cigar on top and Dare And Go in 2nd.  I did not play it once the other way nor did I play Dare And Go to win.  Dare And Go paid $81 to win and the Exacta with Cigar running 2nd paid $123.  Not only did I learn my lesson, I also learned there is no “sure thing” in horse racing as Cigar’s 15 race win streak was now over.

Handicapping lesson #2: When playing the Exacta, always back up your bet.

Playing a straight Exacta is playing with fire.  There are so many ways to lose a race and now you are trying to predict the first two finishers in exact order.  Back up your straight Exacta with a win wager or box the Exacta on the other horse if it is a two-horse Exacta.

Whether you place your bets with a human teller, a self-service machine or your own computer, you should always check your ticket to make sure it is the one you asked for.  We humans are not perfect and will make errors from time to time whether it is yourself or someone else.

Before wagering online, the local OTB’s would be packed especially on big days like the Breeders’ Cup.  I was at an OTB for the 1994 Breeders’ Cup and the wagering lines were so long that I decided to use the self-service machine using a betting card.  I filled it out and it only took a few minutes to wait in line and for the wager to go thru.  I played $20 to win on Timber Country and cheered him home as he won.  However, I did not mark the right box on the betting card and had $20 on some other horse.  I just cost myself $48 in winnings and the mentality that I just lost on a winner.

Handicapping lesson #3: Always check your tickets.

We all make mistakes and assuming your tickets are always right will lead to a losing ticket.  I’m sure there has been a time or two that the mistake ticket has won, but the wrong ticket will almost always lead to more losers.  It only takes a few seconds and that precious time will help to eliminate those mistakes.

Bad beats make for great stories to tell later on in the future, but by following these three lessons you are more likely to have less bad beats and more winners which we all love to have!

Deep Closers: Are they worth the risk?

(Another blog from the Today's Racing Digest website that I wrote)

As a horse racing fan, there may not be anything more exciting than a horse passing all others in the stretch to win the race at the wire. In recent times, Zenyatta thrilled us all with her stretch rallies and even her lone loss in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic was exciting and memorable. Of course, back in the day there was the legendary Silky Sullivan.  (click his name below for a video)

Silky Sullivan

As a horseplayer, deep closers are often bad bets especially in main track races (dirt or synthetics).  The pace of the race, jockey error and clear sailing through traffic are all obstacles these runners have to overcome.  As we observed in this year’s first two legs of the Triple Crown, Orb looked great winning the Kentucky Derby, but looked rather ordinary in the Preakness Stakes.

After watching a replay of the Kentucky Derby, Orb reminded me of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos.  Both winners circled the field around the far turn and both had very fast paces to set up their rallies.  The six furlong split in 2001 was 1:09.25 while this year’s six furlong split was 1:09.80.

The pace was much different for both in the Preakness as the six furlong split in 2001 was 1:11.86 and Monarchos finished 6th at 2/1.  This year’s six furlong split was 1:13.26 and Orb finished 4th at 3/5.  This is just one example as it was under the spotlight, but these type of situations happen day in and day out at tracks across the country.
Perhaps the best example of deep closers to bet against are for Maiden second-time starters.  Horses that are slow into stride and rally strongly to finish 2nd or 3rd are usually well-played at the windows second time out.  You hear the handicappers on TV or the track feed say “that is a horse you should watch for next time”.  That flashy turn of foot is easy to remember and the betting public tends to jump all over these types.

However, these second-timers often show better early speed and come up short.  Below are a few examples of these type of second-timers.

Coconut Cream Pie was off a bit slow, was 6th early and rallied to finish 2nd in her debut Feb 10.  In her next start March 21, she was 4th early and finished 5th at 9/5.

Izy Power was 6th early and finished 2nd in her debut at 36/1 April 21.  In start #2 May 10, she was 2nd early and finished 5th at 7/2.

Top Marc In Class was 9th early and finished 2nd in his debut at 46/1 Aug 11.  For his second start Sept 9, he rallied for 2nd again at 5/2.
Now, we are not saying that these type never win because they do.  Our point is that they are usually well-bet or overbet at the windows and long term they are not good plays.  While we wait for the next Zenyatta or Silky Sullivan to arrive, playing against deep closers can be a way to help you find more winners and fatten your wallet.