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Monday, October 14, 2013

A Day At The OTB

Belmont Stakes day is one of my favorite to wager on. I’ve had some big hits and have had a few bucks on winners Sarava (70/1), D’Tara (38/1) and the best being the 1999 renewal with Lemon Drop Kid (29/1) keying a $2 Trifecta payoff of $5,343. The day also includes four more Graded events and large wagering pools. My budget is tight these days and I only had a bankroll of $40.  We’ll take a look at what I wagered with the results of wins and losses.

5th race: I arrived at the OTB for the 4th race, but did not play.  My top selection was Howie’s Tiz (2/1).  Two other contenders I liked were Accelerare (6/1) and Rap D’oro (22/1).  I’m a value bettor and I thought Acclerare was playable odds.  I played a Double with Accelerare with two horses in the 6th and another Double Acclerare and Rap D’oro with one horse in the 6th.  Then, I singled Howie’s Tiz in a Pick 3 using two in the 6th and one in the 7th.  Over the years, I’ve learned to never disregard your top choice no matter what the odds are.  Moreno won the race with Accelerare in 2nd.  Howie’s Tiz was 7th with Rap D’oro 9th.  Results: -$6

6th race: It really looked like favored Power Broker (6/5) would be able to control the pace.  New Line (8/1) looked like he would be able to be within striking range while Micromanage (11/1) came back a winner and he could be a late threat.  I played an Exacta keying Power Broker with New Line and Micromanage while playing New Line and Micromanage to win as well  Power Broker led all the way with Micromanage rallying for the second spot for a $24.40 payoff.  Result: +$18.80

7th race: Reload was scratched and I thought the A-entry of Justin Phillip and Fast Bullet looked tough to beat.  They were 4/5 at post time and I decided not to play.  Fast Bullet led all the way with Justin Phillip chasing in 2nd for a 1-2 finish.  Result: no play

8th race: I thought this race came down to Stephanie’s Kitten (3/1) and Centre Court (5/2).  I decided to use these two in a Pick 4 with two in the 9th, a single in the 10th and five deep in the 11th.  When I made this bet, Stephanie’s Kitten was 2/1 and I decided not to play her to win.  I was surprised she drifted up to 3/1 at post time and she proved best late.  This was a mistake as I should have had some win money on her at those odds.  Pick 4 ticket is alive.  Result: $10 Pick 4 ticket alive

9th race: This is where I made a big mistake.  I did not have the confidence to single Stephanie’s Kitten in the 8th and only used two in this wide-open race.  I used Declan’s Warrior (9/2) and Clearly Now (9/2).  The race had a lot of early speed and it looked like it would set up well for a closer.  My two selections rallied, but finished 2-3 as they were outfinished by Forty Tales.  No doubt Forty Tales was a contender and he was a closer.  Result: -$10 (Pick 4 ticket)

10th race: Point Of Entry was a total standout on paper.  He was the class of the race, he could handle a yielding course and he was the heavy favorite at 1/2.  Usually if there is an upset, it can be by a frontrunner so I placed $2 win on Plainview (23/1).  I then played a $10 Double from Point Of Entry to Freedom Child.  Also, I played a $2 Double Point Of Entry with longshots Palace Malice and Midnight Taboo.  The Double payoffs to Orb and Revolutionary were too low for me to play. Point Of Entry grinded out the win with Plainview fading to 6th.  Result $14 in Doubles alive

11th race: Since I did not have my other contenders Orb or Revolutionary in my Doubles, I used them in an Exacta on top with my three Double horses, Freedom Child, Midnight Taboo and Palace Malice.  That way, if one of my Double horses finishes 2nd I have a chance to catch the Exacta.  I also played an Exacta using Freedom Child and Palace Malice with Midnight Taboo hoping for a big payoff.  Freedom Child popped and stopped.  Midnight Taboo finished 12th and Palace Malice won.  When I bet the Doubles, the payoff to Palace Malice was $54.  It only paid $36.20 and the parlay would have paid $45.80.  That’s the chance you take in Double wagering.  Results: +$14.20
Total winnings $17.00

It was a winning day, but certainly nothing to brag about.  In my opinion, the betting part has always been harder than the handicapping.  That Pick 4 was very hittable and I did spread in the right races.  I just did not spread far enough to catch the $447 payoff.

The Double has probably been my favorite wager as value can be found and you can see the estimated payoffs to find value.  Most of the time the payoff is bigger than the parlay, but there was some heavy action to Palace Malice for it to move from $54 to $36 with 10 minutes to post.  Obviously, I was not the only one who saw the value on the board.

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