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Saturday, July 6, 2013

Two wins then a loss can prove profitable next time out

Judging how a horse will run off its last race can be good or bad.  A horse that is sharp often runs well right back, but there are times when a horse just doesn't fire for any number of reasons.  These are the type of horses that can pay off especially when they are given another chance at the same level.

There were two horses at Belmont on Saturday, July 6 that won two straight races prior to a loss in their last race.  We'll use Today's Racing Digest Data Lines to show you how each of these horses performed prior to their race today. 

The first one is Tattenham who won his first two races prior to his 5th in his last start which was at this level May 30.  
Tattenham didn't appear to have many excuses May 30 per the comment lines (NOTES) and Alvarado was willing to ride back.  It is a good sign that trainer William Mott returned him at the same level and he shows two works since raced.

Tattenham went off at 7/1 and came up a head short when 2nd to the 4/5 favorite Star Channel.  This was a nice bounce back and it almost became a nice payoff.  The $2 Exacta with the strong favorite returned $23.80.

(If you would like more help in learning how to read Today's Racing Digest, click here for more information.)

The second one is Capetown Devil who won two straight prior to his 9th at today's level June 19.  
Capetown Devil showed his usual early speed, but he really spit the bit and finished last of nine June 19.  He led throughout in two straight prior to that including a win on dirt March 8.  The turf to dirt move is a strong one for the Englehart stable and the gelding returned at the same level.

Capetown Devil was let go at the windows at 13/1, took the lead entering the stretch and kept going for a $28.20 mutuel.  He did not set the pace early, but he was still good enough to win today.  It seems that whatever happened last time out was fixed and he paid his backers nicely.  

Of course, these type of runners don't always run well next time out, but it can be profitable if they do as the betting public often accepts that last race as a horse's current form. 

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